Global Trading Dispatch Review

China Backs Off,

withdrawing Hong Kong’s extradition bill. It may bring the violence in the former British colony to an end by assuring continued semi autonomy. This downplays the risk of a Tiananmen Square type massacre, no end to the trade war, and a sudden 1,000-point plunge in the Dow Average. Stocks like it, up 200 points at the opening.

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US Manufacturing Hits a 3-Year Low,

the ISM Manufacturing PMI diving from an average 56.5 to 49.1 in August. Anything below 50 is a recession indicator. Hoping that China will bleed worse than us in a trade war is not a winning strategy. Stocks dove 300 points and the Volatility Index (VIX) shot up to $21 on the news. Avoid risk as this is going to be a terrible month.

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Hard Brexit Fails in Parliament,

a huge failure for Prime Minister Boris Johnson, whose own party voted against him. Elections to follow which will finally plunge a dagger through the heart of Britain’s attempt to leave the European Community. This is the beginning of the end. Get ready to buy the pound.

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The Latest “Tesla Killer” Hits the Market,

with the all-electric Porsche Taycan. It goes zero to 60 in 2.4 second, but at $150,000 for the turbo model Tesla (TSLA) is secure. Porsche has already collected 30,000 deposits, mostly from existing Porsche owners. The Taycan has a 279 mile range, versus 378 miles for the top end Tesla Model S.

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“Flight Shaming” Becomes a Thing,

criticizing air travelers for their excessive use of commercial airlines which are causing environmental damage. I guess I’d be target number one, with 100,000 miles a year in air travel.

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THE TWEET THAT SANK WALL STREET. THIS TRADE DEAL IS GETTING EXPENSIVE, WITH THE DOW DOWN OVER 1,000 POINTS FROM LAST WEEK’S HIGH GIVING UP ONE-THIRD OF ALL 2019 GAINS. AS YOUR RETIREMENT FUNDS DISAPPEAR UP THEIR OWN EXHAUST PIPE, WRITE A PROTEST LETTER TO THE WHITE HOUSE WHICH TOLD A DEAL WOULD BE SIGNED BY FRIDAY. STAYING 100% CASH.

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BONDS EXPLODE TO THE UPSIDE ON STOCK MARKET PANIC, AS THE WORLD STAMPEDES TO “RISK OFF.” THERE’S A GREAT (TLT) SHORT SETTING UP HERE, BUT NOT QUITE YET.

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GOLD CACHES A BID, AS THE GLOBAL FLIGHT TO SAFETY ACCELERATES. BUT IT IS A POOR SHOWING SO FAR, GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE STOCK MARKET MOVES.

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CHINESE EXPORTS TO THE US FALL, AS US PRICE INCREASES START TO TAKE A BITE. THE MIDDLE KINGDOM IS NO LONGER ABLE TO CUT THEIR OWN PRICES THROUGH YUAN DEPRECIATION, THANKS TO THEIR OWN ECONOMIC STIMULUS PROGRAM.

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CHINESE VICE PREMIER COMING TO THE US, BUT LIU ONLY HAS 24 HOURS TO MEET THE DEADLINE. LOOKS LIKE THE CHINESE THINK THEY CAN GET A BETTER DEAL FROM THE NEXT PRESIDENT.

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CHINA CRISIS DEEPENS. IF THE SENIOR CHINESE NEGOTIATOR FAILS TO SHOW AND THE NEW TARIFFS GO INTO PLACE, WATCH THE DOW AVERAGE DROP 1,000. I WENT 100% CASH YESTERDAY.

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US RETAILERS PANIC. WILL CUSTOMERS EAT THE 25% JUMP IN PRICES IN AN AMAZON-DOMINATED WORLD? UNLIKELY. MASS BANKRUPTCIES TO FOLLOW.

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FED WARNS ABOUT HIGH STOCK PRICES, AND BUSINESS BORROWING IS AT AN ALL-TIME HIGH. MAYBE WE SHOULD LISTEN TO OUR CENTRAL BANK?

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US JOB OPENINGS SOAR IN MARCH, BY A STUNNING 346,000 TO 7.5 MILLION. THIS IS WHAT TOPS LOOK LIKE.

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THE CHINA TRADE WAR RATCHETS UP, WITH TRUMP IMPOSING 25% TARIFFS ON $200 BILLION MORE IN IMPORTS. IT SEEMS THAT THE NEGOTIATIONS WERE NOT GOING AS WELL AS ADVERTISED. THE STOCK MARKET WON’T LIKE THIS ONE BIT. THE HEAT IN THE KITCHEN IS GETTING TOO HOT. THE HEADLINE SHOULD READ “25% TAX TO HIT US CONSUMERS.” GOING TO 100% CASH.

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PREVIEW OF THE NEXT CORRECTION OR BEAR MARKET. WATCH WHAT’S GOING DOWN TODAY AND YOU HAVE A PREVIEW OF THE NEXT CORRECTION OR BEAR MARKET. LEAD THAT LED THE UPSIDE WILL LEAD THE DOWNSIDE TOO, WITH NASDAQ OPENING DOWN 200 POINTS THIS MORNING.

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SOFTBANK TO RAISE $100 BILLION IN VISION FUND IPO. IT MAY BE A PIPE DREAM BUT IF MASAYOSHI SON PULLS IT OFF STOCKS WILL REALLY GET EXPENSIVE. AND CAN YOU SQUEEZE ANOTHER $100 BILLION INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA? ME THINKS NOT.

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UBER TO GO PUBLIC THIS WEEK, LIKELY AT A $90 BILLION VALUATION WHICH WILL SUCK $10 BILLION OUT OF THE MARKET. THE QUESTION IS, WHAT OTHER STOCKS WILL PEOPLE SELL TO GET A PIECE OF THE BIGGEST RIDE SHARING COMPANY?

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MORE TROUBLE FOR BOEING. PILOTS SAY BOEING KNEW ABOUT SOFTWARE TROUBLES FOR A YEAR BEFORE THE CRASH. WAIT FOR A BIGGER DIP TO BUY (BA).

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APRIL NONFARM PAYROLL REPORT WILL BLOW IT AWAY, AT 263,000. THE HEADLINE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE PLUNGES TO A NEW 49-YEAR LOW AT 3.6%. THIS IS WHAT OVERHEATING LOOKS LIKE, FUELED BY MASSIVE BORROWING. PLAY NOW, PAY LATTER.

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TESLA BUMPS UP CAPITAL RAISE TO $2.7 BILLION, AND IT’S LOOKING LIKE THE BOTTOM MAY BE IN. STOCK RISES ON THE NEWS AS MUSK IS TAKING $10 MILLION FOR ITSELF. HIS TIMING IS PERFECT.

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WARREN BUFFET IS BUYING AMAZON, NOT THE WHOLE COMPANY BUT THE STOCK. IT’S HIS SECOND TECHNOLOGY COMPANY AFTER APPLE. BETTER LATE THAN NEVER. MAD HEDGE KEEPS ITS STRONG BUY ON (AMZN), WHICH IT HAS MAINTAINED SINCE $60 IN 2009.

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STEPHEN MOORE WITHDRAWS FED NOMINATION, AS HE COULDN’T GET THE VOTES IN THE SENATE. FINALLY, THE SENATE NIXES A SPECTACULARLY UNQUALIFIED TRUMP NOMINATION. OWED BACK TAXES AND CHILD SUPPORT DIDN’T HELP EITHER. EXPECT A MORE CONVENTION APPOINTMENT TO FOLLOW.

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1) More Headaches for Boeing. What can go wrong with a company that has grounded its largest selling product? Answer: they get criminally prosecuted. That was the unhappy news that hit Boeing (BA) this morning, knocking another $7 off the shares. It can’t get any worse than this, can it? Buy this dip in (BA). Click here.

2) Lyft is Aiming for $23 Billion, as a high-end valuation for its IPO. Avoid this one like the plague. When they offer shares to their low-end employees, you want to run a mile. Click here.

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3) Oil Prices Hit New Four-Month High, at $58 a barrel as OPEC production caps work and Venezuela melts down. At a certain point, high energy prices are going to hurt the economy. Buy (USO) on dips.Click here.

4) Goldman Sachs Facing Criminal Prosecution, over the Malaysia scandal which could cost them billions. Avoid (GS) like smallpox. Click here.

5) Take Profits in Chip Stocks, after the enormous run since December. Chip demand is actually falling off a cliff. It’s a classic bird in the hand versus two in the bush situation. Sell (MU) and (AMD).Click here.

1) Quadruple Witching Today, with the expiration of the quarterly options. Watch out for last minute gyrations around key strike prices at the close. You can go from in-the-money to out-of-money in a heartbeat. Billions are at stake.

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2) Tesla Releases Model Y SUV, but the cheaper $39,000 version won’t be available until 2021 and the stock dives. We are approaching the make-or-break level for the stock, the bottom of a two-year range. Get ready to buy on the meltdown. This is a ten bagger in a decade. Buy (TSLA). Click here.

3) The SEC Sues Volkswagen, for fraud for selling securities while faking mileage stats for its clean diesel cars. It turns out they weren’t so clean after all. VW has already been taken to the cleaners once on this issue, paying $14.9 billion. Avoid VW. Click here.

4) The US Economy Slowed Sharply in Q1, or so says the Federal Reserve, pointing to a 0.4% decline in manufacturing activity in February. Time to be cautious. Click here.

5) The Ides of March are Today. It did not work out well for Julius Caesar. Will it kill off the stock market too? Watch out for friends bearing knives.

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