1) Interest Rates Going to Zero in 2020, as the US goes into recession, or so says Texas hedge fund giant Kyle Bass. Unfortunately, his record is not great. He has been predicting Japan and the yen would collapse for years and it didn’t. Oops! Click here. 2) US Trade Deficit Hits Ten Year High, at $59.8 billion … Read more
1) China Shares Soar. Massive stimulus and a coming end to the trade war could make China the top performing major market this year.Click here. 2) Dollar Soars and Gold Gets Hammered. You can blame the slightly stronger GDP print on Thursday which came in at 2.2% instead of 1.8%. As long as Jay doesn’t raise interest rates, … Read more
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I’ve seen my fair share of global crisis…and I’ve profited each and every time in one way or another! Today we’re staring down the barrel of a trade war, crashing commodities, and a GLOBAL political system run amuck. However I know what’s going to happen next… I know because I’ve been through this, know my … Read more
1) Markets will remain trapped in a narrow range for months 2) A 20% corporate growth rate, a 2% inflation rate, and a 0% stock market return 3) These are numbers you never would expect to see in the same sentence 4) The six months going into a midterm has produced a feeble 1.4% gain … Read more
Everyone who has been reading this letter for the past decade (yes, there are quite a few of you), know that I am a fundamentalist first and a technician second. Of course, you need to use both, as those who mistakenly leave one tool in the bag reliably underperform indexes. The one-liner here is that … Read more
So, I’m sitting here agonizing over whether I should sell short the US Treasury bond market (TLT) once again. Thanks to the bombshell Israel announced alleging the existence of a secret Iranian nuclear missile program, oil has rallied by 2%, the US dollar has soared, and stocks have been crushed. The (TLT) has popped smartly, … Read more
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Trade Alert – (TLT) – TAKE PROFITS SELL the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) December, 2017 $129-$132 in-the-money vertical BEAR PUT spread at $2.95 or best Closing Trade 11-29-2017 expiration date: December 15, 2017 Portfolio weighting: 10% Number of Contracts = 39 contracts I am going to take the win on this one. German … Read more
I believe that the global economy is setting up for a new Golden Age reminiscent of the one the United States enjoyed during the 1950’s, and which I still remember fondly. This is not some pie in the sky prediction. It simply assumes a continuation of existing trends in demographics, technology, politics, and economics. The … Read more